By the numbers
Food prices in the Midwest have grown 30 percent over the past decade, driven mostly by the explosive price inflation that occurred in 2021 and 2022, official statistics show. Food price inflation has been slower since then, and the inflation rate is below 2% in most recent months.
The graph nearby depicts the change in the price of groceries — “food at home,” as the Bureau of Labor Statistics terms it — for consumers in the Midwest. The graph shows for each month the year-over-year percentage change in the grocery portion of the regional Consumer Price Index — that is, the rate of inflation for food.
The growth rate for Midwestern food prices increased gradually from January 2017 until around March 2021, with a notable spike in April, May and June 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Corresponding to that 2020 spike, the year-over-year change dropped from April through June 2021 — that is, prices stabilized.
Beginning in July 2021, however, food price growth began to dramatically accelerate, skyrocketing to a peak annual growth rate of 15.25 percent in August 2022.
In the months that followed, the growth in food prices decelerated. By May 2024, year-over-year change dipped to just 0.4 percent. Since then, food prices have continued to increase but at a slower pace. Between September 2024 and today, food prices have generally grown at a year-over-year rate between 1 and 2.3 percent.
The food price index today is 30 percent higher than it was at the beginning of 2014. A “basket” of groceries worth $1,000 in 2014 would have cost $1,304 in April 2025.
Food prices stayed fairly constant from the beginning of 2014 through the remainder of the 2010s. In January 2020, the cost of the “basket” of goods was only $1,015. Food prices spiked in May and June of that year to $1,061 due to COVID-19 disruptions, but by January 2021, the price was back down to around $1,046.
Then inflation hit: By October 2022, the basket of groceries would have cost $1,250, but the growth in prices had slowed down. The price index did not break the $1,300 threshold until January 2025.
The underlying numbers
| Period | Index | Cost | Year-over-year change |
| January 2014 | 225.094 | $1,000.00 | NA |
| February 2014 | 225.821 | $1,003.23 | NA |
| March 2014 | 226.842 | $1,007.77 | NA |
| April 2014 | 227.902 | $1,012.47 | NA |
| May 2014 | 228.587 | $1,015.52 | NA |
| June 2014 | 228.973 | $1,017.23 | NA |
| July 2014 | 229.216 | $1,018.31 | NA |
| August 2014 | 230.152 | $1,022.47 | NA |
| September 2014 | 230.965 | $1,026.08 | NA |
| October 2014 | 231.420 | $1,028.10 | NA |
| November 2014 | 229.824 | $1,021.01 | NA |
| December 2014 | 230.585 | $1,024.39 | NA |
| January 2015 | 231.378 | $1,027.92 | 2.79% |
| February 2015 | 230.747 | $1,025.11 | 2.18% |
| March 2015 | 229.093 | $1,017.77 | 0.99% |
| April 2015 | 229.209 | $1,018.28 | 0.57% |
| May 2015 | 228.729 | $1,016.15 | 0.06% |
| June 2015 | 229.000 | $1,017.35 | 0.01% |
| July 2015 | 229.936 | $1,021.51 | 0.31% |
| August 2015 | 230.714 | $1,024.97 | 0.24% |
| September 2015 | 231.872 | $1,030.11 | 0.39% |
| October 2015 | 231.063 | $1,026.52 | -0.15% |
| November 2015 | 229.217 | $1,018.32 | -0.26% |
| December 2015 | 229.594 | $1,019.99 | -0.43% |
| January 2016 | 230.695 | $1,024.88 | -0.3% |
| February 2016 | 229.779 | $1,020.81 | -0.42% |
| March 2016 | 227.791 | $1,011.98 | -0.57% |
| April 2016 | 228.662 | $1,015.85 | -0.24% |
| May 2016 | 227.107 | $1,008.94 | -0.71% |
| June 2016 | 226.303 | $1,005.37 | -1.18% |
| July 2016 | 225.750 | $1,002.91 | -1.82% |
| August 2016 | 226.294 | $1,005.33 | -1.92% |
| September 2016 | 226.091 | $1,004.43 | -2.49% |
| October 2016 | 226.418 | $1,005.88 | -2.01% |
| November 2016 | 224.801 | $998.70 | -1.93% |
| December 2016 | 224.151 | $995.81 | -2.37% |
| January 2017 | 225.083 | $999.95 | -2.43% |
| February 2017 | 225.558 | $1,002.06 | -1.84% |
| March 2017 | 225.919 | $1,003.67 | -0.82% |
| April 2017 | 226.011 | $1,004.07 | -1.16% |
| May 2017 | 226.674 | $1,007.02 | -0.19% |
| June 2017 | 226.024 | $1,004.13 | -0.12% |
| July 2017 | 225.959 | $1,003.84 | 0.09% |
| August 2017 | 226.561 | $1,006.52 | 0.12% |
| September 2017 | 226.883 | $1,007.95 | 0.35% |
| October 2017 | 227.606 | $1,011.16 | 0.52% |
| November 2017 | 226.388 | $1,005.75 | 0.71% |
| December 2017 | 225.452 | $1,001.59 | 0.58% |
| January 2018 | 226.656 | $1,006.94 | 0.7% |
| February 2018 | 226.810 | $1,007.62 | 0.56% |
| March 2018 | 225.918 | $1,003.66 | 0% |
| April 2018 | 227.910 | $1,012.51 | 0.84% |
| May 2018 | 226.522 | $1,006.34 | -0.07% |
| June 2018 | 226.963 | $1,008.30 | 0.42% |
| July 2018 | 226.957 | $1,008.28 | 0.44% |
| August 2018 | 225.866 | $1,003.43 | -0.31% |
| September 2018 | 226.373 | $1,005.68 | -0.22% |
| October 2018 | 226.052 | $1,004.26 | -0.68% |
| November 2018 | 224.384 | $996.85 | -0.89% |
| December 2018 | 224.499 | $997.36 | -0.42% |
| January 2019 | 226.291 | $1,005.32 | -0.16% |
| February 2019 | 228.347 | $1,014.45 | 0.68% |
| March 2019 | 227.372 | $1,010.12 | 0.64% |
| April 2019 | 226.719 | $1,007.22 | -0.52% |
| May 2019 | 228.000 | $1,012.91 | 0.65% |
| June 2019 | 227.950 | $1,012.69 | 0.43% |
| July 2019 | 226.822 | $1,007.68 | -0.06% |
| August 2019 | 227.101 | $1,008.92 | 0.55% |
| September 2019 | 227.677 | $1,011.48 | 0.58% |
| October 2019 | 227.603 | $1,011.15 | 0.69% |
| November 2019 | 227.343 | $1,009.99 | 1.32% |
| December 2019 | 227.074 | $1,008.80 | 1.15% |
| January 2020 | 228.471 | $1,015.00 | 0.96% |
| February 2020 | 229.829 | $1,021.04 | 0.65% |
| March 2020 | 230.242 | $1,022.87 | 1.26% |
| April 2020 | 236.431 | $1,050.37 | 4.28% |
| May 2020 | 238.881 | $1,061.25 | 4.77% |
| June 2020 | 238.991 | $1,061.74 | 4.84% |
| July 2020 | 236.510 | $1,050.72 | 4.27% |
| August 2020 | 234.738 | $1,042.84 | 3.36% |
| September 2020 | 232.725 | $1,033.90 | 2.22% |
| October 2020 | 234.245 | $1,040.65 | 2.92% |
| November 2020 | 232.725 | $1,033.90 | 2.37% |
| December 2020 | 233.262 | $1,036.29 | 2.73% |
| January 2021 | 235.377 | $1,045.68 | 3.02% |
| February 2021 | 235.863 | $1,047.84 | 2.63% |
| March 2021 | 236.421 | $1,050.32 | 2.68% |
| April 2021 | 237.832 | $1,056.59 | 0.59% |
| May 2021 | 238.169 | $1,058.09 | -0.3% |
| June 2021 | 239.911 | $1,065.83 | 0.38% |
| July 2021 | 241.889 | $1,074.61 | 2.27% |
| August 2021 | 243.148 | $1,080.21 | 3.58% |
| September 2021 | 245.802 | $1,092.00 | 5.62% |
| October 2021 | 249.139 | $1,106.82 | 6.36% |
| November 2021 | 249.142 | $1,106.84 | 7.05% |
| December 2021 | 250.622 | $1,113.41 | 7.44% |
| January 2022 | 255.381 | $1,134.55 | 8.5% |
| February 2022 | 258.599 | $1,148.85 | 9.64% |
| March 2022 | 263.145 | $1,169.04 | 11.3% |
| April 2022 | 267.001 | $1,186.18 | 12.26% |
| May 2022 | 271.278 | $1,205.18 | 13.9% |
| June 2022 | 274.159 | $1,217.98 | 14.28% |
| July 2022 | 278.158 | $1,235.74 | 14.99% |
| August 2022 | 280.226 | $1,244.93 | 15.25% |
| September 2022 | 281.284 | $1,249.63 | 14.44% |
| October 2022 | 282.059 | $1,253.07 | 13.21% |
| November 2022 | 282.201 | $1,253.70 | 13.27% |
| December 2022 | 283.100 | $1,257.70 | 12.96% |
| January 2023 | 285.715 | $1,269.31 | 11.88% |
| February 2023 | 286.503 | $1,272.81 | 10.79% |
| March 2023 | 286.052 | $1,270.81 | 8.71% |
| April 2023 | 286.499 | $1,272.80 | 7.3% |
| May 2023 | 288.196 | $1,280.34 | 6.24% |
| June 2023 | 287.256 | $1,276.16 | 4.78% |
| July 2023 | 288.763 | $1,282.86 | 3.81% |
| August 2023 | 288.105 | $1,279.93 | 2.81% |
| September 2023 | 288.729 | $1,282.70 | 2.65% |
| October 2023 | 288.130 | $1,280.04 | 2.15% |
| November 2023 | 286.562 | $1,273.08 | 1.55% |
| December 2023 | 287.002 | $1,275.03 | 1.38% |
| January 2024 | 289.498 | $1,286.12 | 1.32% |
| February 2024 | 289.635 | $1,286.73 | 1.09% |
| March 2024 | 289.478 | $1,286.03 | 1.2% |
| April 2024 | 289.107 | $1,284.38 | 0.91% |
| May 2024 | 289.396 | $1,285.67 | 0.42% |
| June 2024 | 289.560 | $1,286.40 | 0.8% |
| July 2024 | 291.065 | $1,293.08 | 0.8% |
| August 2024 | 290.118 | $1,288.87 | 0.7% |
| September 2024 | 292.066 | $1,297.53 | 1.16% |
| October 2024 | 292.313 | $1,298.63 | 1.45% |
| November 2024 | 292.523 | $1,299.56 | 2.08% |
| December 2024 | 291.229 | $1,293.81 | 1.47% |
| January 2025 | 294.516 | $1,308.41 | 1.73% |
| February 2025 | 293.462 | $1,303.73 | 1.32% |
| March 2025 | 296.054 | $1,315.25 | 2.27% |
| April 2025 | 294.130 | $1,306.70 | 1.74% |
