Wisconsin population projected to decline over next 25 years

By the numbers

The population of Wisconsin will decline by approximately 279,000 people over the next 25 years, according to projections released by the state Department of Administration.

The state’s models show the population dropping from its current level of approximately 5.989 million in 2024 to 5.891 million in 2030, 5.842 million in 2040, and 5.710 million in 2050.

The county-specific projections that show Dane and Trempealeau counties leading the state in relative growth, with projected growth of nearly 39% and 34%, respectively, by 2050. Brown and Eau Claire counties are both projected to grow by a healthy 12%, while Outagamie County is expected to grow by about 6%.

However, only 13 counties are projected to see positive population change by 2050. Most counties are projected to decrease over the period. Waukesha County will shrink by about 7%, Milwaukee County by 9%, and Washington County by 12%.

For 14 counties, the decreases will exceed 20% of their current population. Those hardest hit are projected to be Adams County, losing 29%, and Florence County, losing 31%.

The model also disaggregates projections by age category, producing age profiles of the population at different snapshots in time.

The dark blue line above shows the population age profile based on the census taken in 2010. It shows a generally downward sloping curve with noticeable increase for the age brackets from 45 to 65, corresponding to the Baby Boom generation. In the 2020 profile, shown in red, the Baby Boomer bump has shifted to the right as boomers transition into higher age brackets, and so on.

In that the youngest brackets, ranging from age 0 to 34, projected totals generally decrease from one successive decade to the next: 2020 had fewer young people than 2010, 2030 will have fewer young people than 2020, and so on. In other words, the projections show fewer and fewer young people being born in or moving to Wisconsin over time.

The underlying numbers